Leadership: avoiding nuclear disasters

Published: 2011-03-28   There are 5 comments ... please add yours below

You can lead successfully on the basis of stringent analysis and clear strategic thinking
avoiding unnecessary mishaps that can destroy your reputation – and even your life

The toll from Japan’s Fukushima disaster has lessons for us all. People are criticising the plant design, regulation, oversight and post-disaster response. For some, nuclear itself is the culprit. However, Japan has good scientists, competent engineers, meticulous planners and courageous workers. It has honest, industrious citizens – and our hearts go out to them at this appalling time. But, what (as leaders) do we need to learn? Here are seven suggestions.

  1. Make the right assumptions. In your current strategic plan, how aggressively has your team debated those ambitious revenue targets; the forecast absence of disruptive competitive behaviour; and, government policy remaining unchanged? In Japan, there was a potentially fatal policy error in designing reactors to withstand only a force 8 earthquake. In fact, they survived the force 9 one that occurred.
  2. Calculate the impact of a double (or triple) whammy. The subsequent tsunami made a mockery of the reactors’ survival – knocking out their emergency cooling pumps. What if two, not just one, of your strategic-planning assumptions proves wrong?
  3. Test for self-delusion and optimistic bias. We like information that supports our own opinions. Do you encourage other views, and colleagues with contrarian perspectives? Do you appoint someone to play devil’s advocate in your planning discussions?
  4. Ask others to sum up. Too often leaders feel it’s their role – and right! Are you willing to invite a colleague – thus testing your own thinking? They may draw different conclusions.
  5. Attack all corner-cutting and laxity. Life can be tiring, and all too easily we become lazy in our thinking and execution; even at times bending the rules. In Japan, there are suggestions people failed in this way. As did many executives, regulators and politicians worldwide in the years leading into the Global Financial Crisis.
  6. Get your timing right. Avoid being too early or too late. Some leaders are impetuous: over-keen to launch their new product or drive a re-organisation. But, other parties may not yet be ready – leading to poor market uptake or fumbled delivery. Equally, a weak leader can dither and miss opportunities. The lesson? Make timing a decision not a random outcome.
  7. Wish for good luck. For all our cleverness, we can’t control earthquakes or tsunamis. It’s easy to be an armchair critic of the horrors in Japan. But, all our lives are touched by fortune. Careers, livelihoods and lives can be made or destroyed by chance. A rising market may make my ordinary performance look great. A falling one (or chance event) may sweep away years of devoted effort.

If the world wants a low-carbon future, then nuclear energy is probably part of it. However, powerful technologies (like strong leaders) come with dangers attached. So, the actions above are critical if we want to avoid disasters that can be averted via disciplined thinking and action. Beyond those, we’re in the hands of the gods. But, if we do our part, I believe they’re more likely to do theirs. Oops, there’s one of those dangerous biases!

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Dr. Timothy Pascoe AM
PhD (Cambridge), MBA (Harvard), BE & BEc (Adelaide)
Creator, V|E|C|T|O|R Leadership®



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Comments (5)

Timothy Pascoe - date: 2011/04/26 09:10 am


Dear Joseph,

Nice to have your input as someone with direct experience. Your comments sound all too familiar: we tick the box then think we can set and forget. I've recently updated my will. I was amazed how long it was since the last version and had to change quite a bit - my children are now grown up and don't need guardians, etc. in the event of my wife and I dying together.

Best,

Timothy

Joseph Mullin, MBA Principal - date: 2011/04/26 07:11 am

I have 20 year of experience in Emergency Management or as we were referred to as the "doom and gloom boys".
We would sit around analyzing the city we worked for as to what would be the problems from each disaster natural and man-made. How fast could we react, how we would react, how could we mitigate it, and how could we and how fast could we recover from it.
In my work I ask companies and businesses what is your disaster plan? Do you know how you will react? Do you know how you will recover or will you recover? Are your employees part of your plan?
The other question I ask if they say they have one is how often do you review it and update it? This is where they fall short as it was written once and they feel the job was done. A disaster plan is a dynamic document it isn't static as there are always a changing environment that will call for changes in your plan.

Timothy Pascoe - date: 2011/04/01 09:27 am


Dear John and Dear Sabina,

You both make important points. I like John's focus on the fact that much of what I say in the Potshot could have been derived from events of the sort we've all seen and experienced across our careers. The disaster in Japan is hugely more dramatic but the lessons are much the same.

Similarly, I like Sabina's comment that in a world where there are plenty of natural disasters and chance events beyond our control, we must ensure we don't add self-made ones.

Many thanks,

Timothy

Sabina Asare- Browne - date: 2011/04/01 07:38 am

Hello Timothy, This is a great article and brings home the dangers of an act of (Nature)God- natural disater co existing with man self made potential for disaster turning into the situation we have now. It is really tragic, when one looks at what has happened at Fukushima and one hopes that this does not happen to any other country with so much nuclear power. It is a real pity and ironic that both huge destructive forces have destroyed a once thriving modern city which had so much economic wealth and financial strength and power. However, perhaps, we can use it as an eye opening experience in our business environments. Sometimes our ideas for building are supported by the right calibre of experts but at our planning and building stage we often lose direction and we either lose sight of the
"what if s" and become too confident ,content and comfortable and fail to acknowledge that we can fall victim due to our own frailty.We often are blind in emphasising on the "what if s" causing us to lose sight of certain realities such as a sudden or drastic turn of events or twist of fate which can suddely overtake the foundations of our survival.
We get side tracked into a poor sense of security and so we do not adequately prepare or put into place control measures for the day when unavoidable events occur. We exceed our limits and forget that limits are set for reasons. I also think that part of this is a feeling that disasters only happen to others and so we miss carrying out our own regular monitoring health checks, ignoring warning that perhaps we are operating at dangerous risk levels which only an act of nature confirms when it is too late. In a business world witness our business crumbling before our eyes in a short time. There is the need to be ever ready for any eventualities so that unpreparedness and "what if s" do not arrive too late. Most times those of us who take decisions alone do not feel the need to have back ups because often we ignore contributions from others. Second opinions most definitely alert us on caution on "what if s" reminding us that anything at all can happen at anytime especially as in life nothing is certain, its Gods world success and failures can all happen in one day. We should not take chances on our self made disasters.
Thank You

John Jackson - date: 2011/03/29 12:06 pm


It's far too early to evaluate the technical, economic or, most importantly, the long-term social implications of Fukushima.

However, it's not too early to deduce some tentative lessons from what we already know.

In that sense, it's hard to argue with any of the seven action points in the Potshot. One could arrive at similar lessons from the mishaps we all encounter day to day and week to week in our own organisations.

What tragic events like Fukushima do is highlight lessons we too easily ignore in the daily swirl of our operational challenges.

John


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