Leadership: avoiding nuclear disasters
Published: 2011-03-28 There are 5 comments ... please add yours below
The toll from Japan’s Fukushima disaster has lessons for us all. People are criticising the plant design, regulation, oversight and post-disaster response. For some, nuclear itself is the culprit. However, Japan has good scientists, competent engineers, meticulous planners and courageous workers. It has honest, industrious citizens – and our hearts go out to them at this appalling time. But, what (as leaders) do we need to learn? Here are seven suggestions.
- Make the right assumptions. In your current strategic plan, how aggressively has your team debated those ambitious revenue targets; the forecast absence of disruptive competitive behaviour; and, government policy remaining unchanged? In Japan, there was a potentially fatal policy error in designing reactors to withstand only a force 8 earthquake. In fact, they survived the force 9 one that occurred.
- Calculate the impact of a double (or triple) whammy. The subsequent tsunami made a mockery of the reactors’ survival – knocking out their emergency cooling pumps. What if two, not just one, of your strategic-planning assumptions proves wrong?
- Test for self-delusion and optimistic bias. We like information that supports our own opinions. Do you encourage other views, and colleagues with contrarian perspectives? Do you appoint someone to play devil’s advocate in your planning discussions?
- Ask others to sum up. Too often leaders feel it’s their role – and right! Are you willing to invite a colleague – thus testing your own thinking? They may draw different conclusions.
- Attack all corner-cutting and laxity. Life can be tiring, and all too easily we become lazy in our thinking and execution; even at times bending the rules. In Japan, there are suggestions people failed in this way. As did many executives, regulators and politicians worldwide in the years leading into the Global Financial Crisis.
- Get your timing right. Avoid being too early or too late. Some leaders are impetuous: over-keen to launch their new product or drive a re-organisation. But, other parties may not yet be ready – leading to poor market uptake or fumbled delivery. Equally, a weak leader can dither and miss opportunities. The lesson? Make timing a decision not a random outcome.
- Wish for good luck. For all our cleverness, we can’t control earthquakes or tsunamis. It’s easy to be an armchair critic of the horrors in Japan. But, all our lives are touched by fortune. Careers, livelihoods and lives can be made or destroyed by chance. A rising market may make my ordinary performance look great. A falling one (or chance event) may sweep away years of devoted effort.
If the world wants a low-carbon future, then nuclear energy is probably part of it. However, powerful technologies (like strong leaders) come with dangers attached. So, the actions above are critical if we want to avoid disasters that can be averted via disciplined thinking and action. Beyond those, we’re in the hands of the gods. But, if we do our part, I believe they’re more likely to do theirs. Oops, there’s one of those dangerous biases!
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Dr. Timothy Pascoe AM
PhD (Cambridge), MBA (Harvard), BE & BEc (Adelaide)
Creator, V|E|C|T|O|R Leadership®